The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Moderate to High Threat


Moderate to High Threat

St. Louis MO

Low to Moderate


Date Issued: 31 Dec 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Fri., Sat., and Sun, Dec 31, Jan 1 and 2. TX/OK: Above normal temperatures continue over the holiday weekend. Day time highs will be spring-like in the 60s and 70s with high humidity throughout the region. Patchy early morning fog in some areas this morning will lift by mid-day. Night time lows will be in the 50s. Winds will be southerly for most of the weekend and rain chances will increase as an upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest. Scattered rain and thunderstorms are likely through the area on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the north, northeast. In additions some of trajectories show that the air masses from Texas will also cross Oklahoma this weekend. Trajectories from the Arbuckles show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. Temperatures in the Arbuckles will be near 70s with partly cloudy skies on Friday. Condition will allow for pollen release this afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s tonight with mild temperatures continuing all weekend. However, scattered rain and thunderstorms this weekend may reduce pollen dispersal.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Favorable conditions for pollen release in the Arbuckle Mountains on Friday. In addition trajectories from Texas especially the eastern side of the Plateau may bring additional pollen to the area. Mixed conditions for pollen release on Saturday and Sunday with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstroms in the region. High threat continues in areas near the Arbuckles that remain dry.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


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