The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate to High Threat


Moderate to High Threat

San Antonio

Moderate to High Threat


Date Issued: 31 December 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Fri., Sat., and Sun, Dec 31, Jan 1 and 2. TX/OK: Above normal temperatures continue over the holiday weekend. Day time highs will be spring-like in the 60s and 70s with high humidity throughout the region. Patchy early morning fog in some areas this morning will lift by mid-day. Night time lows will be in the 50s. Winds will be southerly for most of the weekend and rain chances will increase as an upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest. Scattered rain and thunderstorms are likely through the area on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the north. Trajectories show mixed conditions that are less than ideal for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. At the source, conditions for pollen release should be favorable this afternoon after patchy fog lifts.Temperatures are in the favorable range throughout the Plateau. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s tonight with mild temperatures continuing all weekend. However, scattered rain and thunderstorms this weekend may reduce pollen dispersal.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Favorable conditions for pollen release on Friday once patchy fog lifts and humidities decrease. Mixed conditions for pollen release on Saturday and Sunday with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstroms in the region. High threat continues in areas that remain dry.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


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