The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2005


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, Dec 24 and 25. TX/OK: Strong frontal system moves into the region this morning bringing strong northwest winds to the entire region. Saturday will see cooler temperatures and cloudy skies in Oklahoma with strong gusty NW winds and light rain to parts of the area. Daytime highs will be in the 50s and nighttime lows in the 30s. Sunday will bring clearing skies with moderate NW winds and high temperatures in the 50s. In Texas skies will be clear to partly cloudy with daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Nighttime lows will be in the upper 30s. On Saturday, winds will be strong and gusty from NW. Winds will be moderate and shift around to westerly on Sunday. Southerly winds will return on Monday throughout the Oklahoma/Texas region.

Trajectory weather:
The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the southeast today. The trajectories are associated with a cold sinking air and show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. The trajectories from the western side of the plateau begin to shift back to the north late Sunday. Sunday’s trajectories begin moving east, southeast but shift around toward the north, northeast with better characteristics for pollen dispersal.


OUTLOOK: ***
Low threat ***
Although temperatures are optimal for pollen release, the severe drought throughout the region has delayed the pollen season. At this time we do not have confirmation that the trees have started to pollinate. However if pollen release has started in localized areas, conditions are good for pollen release and the threat may be elevated.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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