The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2005

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Mon and Tues, Dec 26 and 27. TX/OK: Conditions will be warm with clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate to gusty south to southwest winds. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s in Oklahoma and upper 70s to low 80s in Texas. Overnight lows will be mild in the 40s and 50s. Winds will increase on Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system which will move into the area on Wednesday bringing near normal temperatures and northwest winds. Chance of rain in Oklahoma late Tuesday and Wednesday as the front moves in.

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Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the north, northeast today over the Dallas/Fort Worth area and into Oklahoma. The trajectories, especially from the eastern side of the Plateau show good characteristics for entrainment and travel. Tuesday’s trajectories move to the east. Trajectories from the eastern part of the Plateau turn northward across Louisiana and Mississippi. Tuesday’s trajectories from the western part of the Plateau turn southeast across southeast Texas and into the Gulf but do not show good characteristics for entrainment and travel.


OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate threat *** Conditions are optimal for pollen release, but the severe drought throughout the region has delayed the pollen season. We do have confirmation that the trees have started to pollinate but levels are low. However in localized areas near mountain cedar populations, the threat may be elevated since conditions are good for release..



Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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