The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 Dec 2005

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Dec 28 and 29. TX/OK: Strong frontal system moves eastward today shifting diminishing winds across the region from the northwest eventually to a southeastern direction. Today will be partly cloudy in areas of the region with Thursday showing clearer skies and temperatures in the upper 50s and relatively dry conditions as humidity will be around 40%. Nighttime temperatures will be in the low 40s to upper 30s. In Texas skies will be clear to partly cloudy with daytime highs in the upper 60s today and tomorrow with clearing skies as high pressure moves in from the west. Nighttime lows will be in the lower 40s. On Thursday, winds will continue to diminish and eventual switch from a northwesterly direction to more southeasterly. Precipitation is not expected throughout the Oklahoma/Texas region.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the southeast over eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas along the Red River. The trajectories are associated with sinking atmospheric characteristics, poor conditions for pollen entrainment and travel. Trajectories on Thursday begin moving to the southeast then turn late in the day to north and then northeast at the lowest elevations. Winds above 500 m continue the southeasterly direction. If Arbuckle populations are releasing pollen, poor characteristics for entrainment and travel preclude dissemination at any significant distance.


OUTLOOK: *** Low threat *** Conditions are poor for the initiation of pollen release today and tomorrow because the severe drought throughout the region has delayed the pollen season. At this time we do not have confirmation that these trees have started to pollinate.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. . This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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