The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2005

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Dec 28 and 29. TX/OK: Strong frontal system moves eastward today shifting diminishing winds across the region from the northwest eventually to a southeastern direction. Today will be partly cloudy in areas of the region with Thursday showing clearer skies and temperatures in the upper 50s and relatively dry conditions as humidity will be around 40%. Nighttime temperatures will be in the low 40s to upper 30s. In Texas skies will be clear to partly cloudy with daytime highs in the upper 60s today and tomorrow with clearing skies as high pressure moves in from the west. Nighttime lows will be in the lower 40s. On Thursday, winds will continue to diminish and eventual switch from a northwesterly direction to more southeasterly. Precipitation is not expected throughout the Oklahoma/Texas region.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas begin to move to the south and southeast today, then as the low pressure to the north moves eastward a dramatic switch towards more southerly winds occur moving the winds northward. The trajectories on the eastern edge of the Plateau follow the movement of the low pressure northeast whereas those to the west show diminished strength and calming conditions. Sinking atmospheric conditions are poor characteristics for entrainment and travel therefore any pollen released should remain relatively close to the source. Weather conditions will be good for pollen release (see outlook) with temperatures in the upper 60s, clearing skies and low relative humidity. Nighttime temperatures will remain above freezing in the low to mid 40s to the east and upper 30s to low 40s in the west.


OUTLOOK: *** Low threat *** Although temperatures are optimal for pollen release, the severe drought throughout the region has delayed the pollen season. At this time we do not have confirmation that the trees have started to pollinate significantly. However if pollen release has started in localized areas, conditions are good for pollen release and the threat may be elevated within individual Juniperus ashei stands..  

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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