The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 Dec 2005

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday and Friday, Dec 29 and 30. TX/OK: High pressure continues to shift across the region toward the southeast with low pressure moving across the northern plains, shifting the winds towards a northerly direction today. A weak low pressure will begin to drop towards the southeast from the northern Rockies bringing cooler but dry conditions Friday. Today the region will be relatively clear with temperatures in the upper 60s and relatively dry conditions as humidity will be around 40% during the day. Nighttime temperatures will be in the low 40s with clear skies. Tomorrow, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler, but will continue to be relatively dry. In Texas, skies will continue to be clear with daytime highs in the low to mid 70’s across the region. Nighttime temperatures will remain above the freezing mark, in the low to mid 40’s region wide. Relative humidity will continue to be low during the day with little chance of precipitation throughout the region. Temperatures across Texas will increase on Friday by about 5 degrees with the southern areas approaching 80F. Daytime winds will increase tomorrow with speeds between 10 and 20 miles/hour, decreasing overnight, and then switching from a southerly direction to a northerly direction on Friday.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move northward from the Arbuckle Mountains over eastern Oklahoma toward the upper Midwest. The trajectories are associated with rising atmospheric characteristics as they move towards a low pressure system moving eastward across the upper tier states. These conditions are good for pollen entrainment and travel. The trajectories continue their movement northward on Friday. If the Arbuckle populations are releasing pollen, the overall good weather and atmospheric characteristics provide good conditions for downwind dispersal.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat *** Conditions are good for the initiation of pollen release today and tomorrow. However, because the severe drought throughout the region has delayed the pollen season, it is unclear if the trees have begun to shed pollen at this site. At this time we do not have confirmation that these trees have started to pollinate. If they are beginning to pollinate, the early date of the pollen season should result in modest amount being available for entrainment and travel

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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