The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 31 Dec 05

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, Dec 31 and Jan 01. TX/OK: The Texas/Oklahoma area will continue to be warm and dry today and tomorrow. A low pressure system will begin to move off of the central Rockies on Sunday bringing increasing cloudiness to the north, but Texas will remain relatively clear or with high clouds. Winds will remain quite strong over the weekend and shift from the predominant southerly direction today to a more westerly flow on Sunday. Wind speeds will continue to be strong especially towards the north. Humidity will remain low during the day with values in the 10-20% range in west rising towards the east and north, but remaining near 40%. However overnight high humidity along the south and southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau may result in some precipitation, but only minor amounts at best. Similarly northeastern Oklahoma shows a heightened chance of precipitation (20%) overnight. Temperatures throughout the region will remain warm with highs in Oklahoma reaching the 70s and Texas showing highs in the upper 70s today and tomorrow. Nighttime temperatures will remain above average for the time of year.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the north over Oklahoma City, then continue into the upper Midwest. The trajectories are associated with rising atmospheric conditions that are characteristically good for pollen entrainment and travel. Warm daytime temperatures, clear skies and low relative humidity are excellent conditions for pollen release.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat *** Severe to Moderate threat *** Conditions are very good for pollen release today, especially with high relative humidity at night. However, the severe drought throughout the region has delayed the pollen season therefore the cones are only beginning to open. At this time we do not have confirmation that the trees have started to pollinate, but have seen increased levels of atmospheric pollen to the south along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Because pollination is only beginning, concentrations should only pose a moderate threat to downwind communities from this population, but trajectories from Texas pass over the region as well resulting in Severe threats from central to eastern Oklahoma. These include severe threats from Oklahoma City to Tulsa and moderate threats further downwind in St. Lois MO, especially if the wind trajectories are pushed slightly north along their path.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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