The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 31 December 2005

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, Dec 31 and Jan 01. TX/OK: The Texas/Oklahoma area will continue to be warm and dry today and tomorrow. A low pressure system will begin to move off of the central Rockies on Sunday bringing increasing cloudiness to the north, but Texas will remain relatively clear or with high clouds. Winds will remain quite strong over the weekend and shift from the predominant southerly direction today to a more westerly flow on Sunday. Wind speeds will continue to be strong especially towards the north. Humidity will remain low during the day with values in the 10-20% range in west rising towards the east and north, but remaining near 40%. However overnight high humidity along the south and southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau may result in some precipitation, but only minor amounts at best. Similarly northeastern Oklahoma shows a heightened chance of precipitation (20%) overnight. Temperatures throughout the region will remain warm with highs in Oklahoma reaching the 70s and Texas showing highs in the upper 70s today and tomorrow. Nighttime temperatures will remain above average for the time of year.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the North to northeast today, over central to eastern Oklahoma and into the upper Midwest. The trajectories are associated with rising air that is characteristically good for pollen entrainment and travel. Conditions will be good throughout the region for pollen dispersal as warm dry conditions and high wind speeds provide ample opportunites for ripe cones to split and release pollen into the atmosphere

OUTLOOK: *** Severe threat *** Temperatures and low humidity are very good for pollen release,. The severe drought throughout the region has delayed the pollen season, but high pollen counts in the Austin area signal increasing release is occurring in the primary Juniperus ashei population. Areas to the north and then northeast of the Edwards Plateau may see significant amounts of pollen in the Atmosphere. This includes the Dallas/Fort Worth area onward toward Oklahoma City, Tulsa and St. Louis.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) in conjunction with Peter K Van de Water. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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