The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 18 Dec 2006


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Mon and Tues, Dec 18 and 19. TX/OK: The weak cold front will continue to move through the region slowly pushing south across central Texas. Gulf moisture is moving up and over the cold air and will result in cloudy conditions throughout the region. Scattered showers are possibility through the region today and increasing tomorrow. Temperatures on Monday will range from the mid to upper 40s and low 50s in Oklahoma to the upper 60s to upper 70s in Texas. Monday night lows will range from the upper 30s to the low 60s. Winds are light and variable through the region from the north and northeast in Oklahoma and southeast in Texas. Temperatures on Tuesday will be about the same as today in Oklahoma and a few degrees cooler in Texas. A Pacific front will move through the area on Wednesday providing an even better opportunity for widespread rain and chance of thunderstorms.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over north Texas and then curve back around to the north over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The trajectories are initially associated with cold sinking air and show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. Trajectories on Tuesday begin moving to the southwest then turn late in the day to north over the Oklahoma panhandle. Conditions at the source area are mild with very high humidity and a chance of rain. If any pollen is released it will likely stay close to the Arbuckles.



OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Temperatures are within the range for pollen release today and Tuesday but humidities are high. Overall the conditions are not optimal for any long range pollen dispersal. Pollen levels might be somewhat elevated close to the mountain cedar populations


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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