The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 18 December 2006

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Mon and Tues, Dec 18 and 19. TX/OK: The weak cold front will continue to move through the region slowly pushing south across central Texas. Gulf moisture is moving up and over the cold air and will result in cloudy conditions throughout the region. Scattered showers are possibility through the region today and increasing tomorrow. Temperatures on Monday will range from the mid to upper 40s and low 50s in Oklahoma to the upper 60s to upper 70s in Texas. Monday night lows will range from the upper 30s to the low 60s. Winds are light and variable through the region from the north and northeast in Oklahoma and southeast in Texas. Temperatures on Tuesday will be about the same as today in Oklahoma and a few degrees cooler in Texas. A Pacific front will move through the area on Wednesday providing an even better opportunity for widespread rain and chance of thunderstorms.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the northwest and then north today. The trajectories are associated with a cold sinking air and show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. The trajectories from the western side of the plateau begin to shift back to the north late Sunday. Sunday's trajectories begin moving east, southeast but shift around toward the north, northeast with better characteristics for pollen dispersal.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Temperatures are optimal for pollen release throughout the area; however, humidities are high with a chance of showers throughout the state. Areas that are dry may see elevated pollen levels, while rain is likely to wash pollen out of the area. Areas at greatest exposure risk are in west Texas and the Texas panhandle. These conditions will continue over the next two days with rain chances increasing slightly on Tuesday and greatly on Wednesday. As always individuals living close to mountain cedar trees are at greatest exposure risk.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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