The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Date Issued: 22 December 2006

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Fri and Sat, Dec 22 and 23. TX/OK: Seasonal temperatures will prevail over the next two days. In Oklahoma daytime highs will in the upper 40s to low 50s and night time lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Skies will be partly cloudy and winds from the west on Friday shifting to the north for Friday night and Saturday. In Texas, temperatures will be in the 60s on Friday with clear to partly cloudy skies and winds generally light from the north in the afternoon but shifting around with southeast and easterly winds later in the day. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s. In Texas on Saturday, skies will be cloudy with northeast winds and a chance of rain as the next storm system approaches from the west. Daytimes highs will be from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas mainly move to the west - circling around west Texas late tonight and tomorrow as the frontal system approaches. Today's trajectories show mostly favorable characteristics for entrainment and travel. Saturday's trajectories begin moving to the west, southwest and into northern Mexico. Conditions at the source areas are favorable for pollen release today. Saturday there is a good chance of rain in Texas with even the possibility of some sleet in Texas Hill country. Any precipitation will decrease the likelihood of pollen release.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat *** Conditions are good for pollen release today with light winds. Later in the day, winds will shift carrying the pollen into west Texas. Pollen levels likely to be high today near the mountain cedar source areas. Conditions tomorrow will depend on the rainfall with high pollen levels in dry areas

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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