The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2006

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sun and Mon, Dec 24 and 25. TX/OK: Partly to mostly cloudy skies over Oklahoma today with clearing moving from west later today. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s with a chance of rain in southeastern Oklahoma near the Texas border. Light variable winds shifting to northwest winds this afternoon with a cold front moving in to the state. Tonight there is a chance of light rain or light snow flurries in parts of Oklahoma. In Texas, areas of light to moderate rain will continue through the afternoon moving out of the area this evening. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 40s with light winds, shifting to northwest winds as the cold front moves into the area. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s to the upper 30s throughout the region. Monday will see partly cloudy skies with moderate to strong northwest winds and temperatures in the 40s in Oklahoma and 50s to low 60s in Texas.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the southeast today. The trajectories from the eastern side of the Plateau show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel while those from the western side show moderate characteristics. On the eastern side of the Plateau rainfall will inhibit pollen release. On the western side of the Plateau, conditions are in the marginal range for pollen release and some release may occur. The trajectories on Monday all move to the southeast and are associated with a cold sinking air and show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. Conditions will be marginal for pollen release tomorrow. The overnight temperatures will be low but will warm up to the favorable range tomorrow afternoon. Pollen release may be likely tomorrow afternoon.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today, Moderate to High Monday *** Conditions unfavorable in most areas today although some pollen release may occur in the western part of the Plateau. As always, pollen concentratins may be higher in areas not receiving any rain today. Pollen release likely tomorrow as afternoon temperatures warm into the favorable range. Pollen concentrations may be locally high close to mountain cedar populations but conditions are not favorable for down wind transport.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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