The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2006

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday and Friday, Dec 28 and 29. TX/OK: Partly to mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures and southeast winds throughout the region today and tomorrow. Day time highs Thursday and Friday will be in the 50s in Oklahoma and 60s in Texas. Night time lows will stay mild with the cold cover dropping into the low to mid 50s. Chances of rain will be increasing through Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday throughout the region with significant accumulation possible in some areas.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the north, northwest on moderate to strong southeast winds then show some circling back around to the south. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen. Conditions at the source are mild and significant pollen release is possible. Friday's trajectories from the eastern side of the Plateau continue to move to the northwest, while trajectories from the west show movement to the east across the state and then turning northeast. Rain is likely at the source areas on the Plateau tomorrow thereby reducing the chances of pollen release; however, pollen release is likely in areas without rain.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today/ Variable Threat tomorrow *** Favorable conditions for pollen release today/mostly unfavorable tomorrow with the forecast of rain. Significant pollen release likely today. Rain and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow throughout the region resulting in a low threat. As always, pollen release will be possible tomorrow in areas without rainfall making it difficult to provide an absolute exposure risk for the entire region. Expect pollen release in areas without rain.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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