The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 December 2006

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, Dec 30 and 31. TX/OK: Mild temperatures continue across the region today with a chance of rain in Oklahoma as the storm system clears the area. Skies will be mostly cloudy in Oklahoma with daytime highs in the upper 50s and moderate southwest winds. Clear to partly cloudy skies today in Texas with high temperatures from the upper 50s to the mid 60s and light to moderate west winds. Overnight lows in the region will range from the low 30s to 40. Sunday will be clear to partly cloudy with temperatures only in the 40s in Oklahoma and low 50s to mid 60s in Texas. Moderate to strong winds will be from the west or northwest. Temperatures Sunday night will be from the upper 20s to low 30s throughout the region.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the east today and turn southeast tomorrow. The trajectories are associated with sinking air and show moderate to poor characteristics for entrainment and downwind travel. Conditions at the source are in the favorable range although pollen release may be delayed until the afternoon as trees slowly dry out from overnight rain. Sunday's trajectories begin moving east, southeast but shift around toward the west, northwest. Trajectory characteristics are poor for downwind dispersal. Conditions across the Plateau will be cold Sunday morning delaying pollen release till the afternoon hours.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Although temperatures are optimal for pollen release, it may be afternoon before trees dry out and release pollen. Overnight temperatures will be low again delaying pollen release till the afternoon hours. Conditions in the afternoon will be favorable for pollen release and concentrations may be high near source areas. Conditions are not ideal for downwind dispersal.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page