The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 19 December 2007


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Wednesday December19. TX/OK: Winds throughout the region will be shifting to the north over night and into tomorrow. Partlycloudy conditions today will begin to clear in the morning with sunny conditions warming from the mid-40s into the lower 60s by tomorrow afternoon. There is a 20% chanceof precipitation overnight falling to 0% by tomorrow at noon. Humidity will be high overnight but then will fall below 50% by tomorrow afternoon.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the north over central Oklahoma intosoutheastern Kansas overnight. The trajectories are associated moderately rising atmospheric conditions, which are good characteristics for entrainment and travel. However, there is no indication that the trees are releasing pollen at this time. Atmospheric monitoring further south in Texas shows somewhat mixed levels. Trees, may be beginning to shed pollen, however we do not feel that significant atmospheric concentrations have yet occurred.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat *** Conditions are marginal forpollen release today. At this time we do not have confirmation that the trees have started to pollinate.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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