The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 December 2007

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday December 19. TX/OK: Winds throughout the region will be shifting to the north over night and into tomorrow. Partly cloudy conditions today will begin to clear in the morning with sunny conditions warming from the mid-40's into the upper 60's and low 70's by tomorrow afternoon. There is a small chance of precipitation (10%) overnight falling to 0% by tomorrow at noon. Humidity will be moderately high overnight but then will fall below 50% by late tomorrow morning.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the north-northeast today, traveling over the southeast corner of Oklahoma overnight. The trajectories are associated moderately rising atmospheric conditions, which are good characteristics for entrainment and travel. However, pollen release . Atmospheric monitoring in central Texas shows somewhat mixed atmospheric concentrations. Trees may be beginning to shed pollen; however, we do not feel that significant atmospheric concentrations have yet to occur.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat *** Although temperatures and humidities are optimal for pollen release, at this time we do not have confirmation that the trees have started to pollinate. However if pollen release has started in localized areas, conditions are good for pollen release and the threat may be elevated.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page