The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2007

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, 20 December. TX/OK: Showers and thunderstorms move to the east across Louisiana with clearing skies and dryer air filling into the Texas area. Daytime highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s throughout the region, with lower highs by 5 to 10 degrees in Oklahoma. Winds will be light to moderate from the west to northwest today into the evening hours when winds will shift coming from a more southerly direction. Overnight lows will be in the lower 40s to the south and in the upper 30s across Oklahoma with clear skies.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the southeast over north Texas, then after midnight turn to a northerly direction. The trajectories are associated with a cooler sinking air and show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. If Arbuckle populations are releasing pollen, we may see some southeast of the Arbuckle mountains during the day today.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Risk *** Temperatures and humidity are optimal for pollen release; however, it is early in the pollination season. However if pollen release has started in localized areas, conditions are good for pollen release and the threat may be elevated, in communities close to the Juniperus asheii populations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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