The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2007

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, 20 December. TX/OK: Showers and thunderstorms move to the east across Louisiana with clearing skies and dryer air filling into the Texas area. Daytime highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s throughout the region. Winds will be light to moderate from the west to northwest today into the evening hours when winds will shift coming from a more southerly direction. Overnight lows will be in the lower 40s with clear skies.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the southeast today. The trajectories are associated with a relatively stable atmosphere and show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. The trajectories across the Edwards plateau begin to shift back toward the north after midnight tonight with better characteristics for pollen dispersal as winds will become stronger during the morning hours tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate risk *** Temperatures and humidity are optimal for pollen release; however, trees are only beginning to pollinate. However if pollen release has started in localized areas, conditions are good for pollen release and the threat may be elevated, in communities close to the main Juniperus asheii population on the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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