The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low to Moderate |
Tulsa |
Low to Moderate |
St. Louis MO |
Low to Moderate |
Date Issued: 21 December 2007
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Friday, 21 December. TX/OK:
Weather today will be begin to degrade as the potential for showers will begin to increase towards tomorrow. Temperatures
in Oklahoma will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s from north to south. Warm temperatures will be the rule throughout
Texas as well with the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau in the upper 70s cooling to the mid 50s overnight.
The western portions of the Edwards Plateau will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler Winds will be moderate from 10 to 15
mph from the south in Oklahoma and lighter in Texas today, but increasing overnight. Winds will shift to the southwest
after midnight. Skies will be partly cloudy tonight to the north and sunny to the south with increasing clouds
regionally overnight into tomorrow.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the north over central
Oklahoma, into the evening hours winds will begin to become more buoyant rising as the trajectories move towards
the north. Surface winds will turn back towards the south east whereas the upper winds continue northward. The
trajectories show moderate to good characteristics for entrainment and travel. If Arbuckle populations are releasing
pollen, we may see in the Oklahoma City area from both the Arbuckle population as well as out of Texas (See the
Texas forecast)
OUTLOOK: *** Low to moderate threat*** Temperatures
and humidity are optimal for pollen release and at this time it appears that the trees are starting to pollinate.
At this time of the pollination season, if pollen release has started in localized areas, conditions are good
for pollen release and the threat may be elevated, in communities close to the Juniperus asheii populations.
Long distance dispersal from Texas is also a possibility with the trajectories covering most of eastern Oklahoma.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Sulfur, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth
and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA
93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions
over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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