The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low to Moderate

Tulsa

Low to Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low to Moderate

 

Date Issued: 21 December 2007


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Friday, 21 December. TX/OK: Weather today will be begin to degrade as the potential for showers will begin to increase towards tomorrow. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s from north to south. Warm temperatures will be the rule throughout Texas as well with the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau in the upper 70s cooling to the mid 50s overnight. The western portions of the Edwards Plateau will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler Winds will be moderate from 10 to 15 mph from the south in Oklahoma and lighter in Texas today, but increasing overnight. Winds will shift to the southwest after midnight. Skies will be partly cloudy tonight to the north and sunny to the south with increasing clouds regionally overnight into tomorrow.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the north over central Oklahoma, into the evening hours winds will begin to become more buoyant rising as the trajectories move towards the north. Surface winds will turn back towards the south east whereas the upper winds continue northward. The trajectories show moderate to good characteristics for entrainment and travel. If Arbuckle populations are releasing pollen, we may see in the Oklahoma City area from both the Arbuckle population as well as out of Texas (See the Texas forecast)

OUTLOOK: *** Low to moderate threat*** Temperatures and humidity are optimal for pollen release and at this time it appears that the trees are starting to pollinate. At this time of the pollination season, if pollen release has started in localized areas, conditions are good for pollen release and the threat may be elevated, in communities close to the Juniperus asheii populations. Long distance dispersal from Texas is also a possibility with the trajectories covering most of eastern Oklahoma.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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