The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 December 2007

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, 21 December. TX/OK: Weather today will be begin to degrade as the potential for showers will begin to increase towards tomorrow. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s from north to south. Warm temperatures will be the rule throughout Texas as well with the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau in the upper 70s cooling to the mid 50s overnight. The western portions of the Edwards Plateau will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler Winds will be moderate from 10 to 15 mph from the south in Oklahoma and lighter in Texas today, but increasing overnight. Winds will shift to the southwest after midnight. Skies will be partly cloudy tonight to the north and sunny to the south with increasing clouds regionally overnight into tomorrow.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the north from the primary area with Juniperus asheii trees. The trajectories are associated with a relatively stable atmosphere today but begin to become more buoyant after sundown. The winds over the Edwards Plateau show moderate to good characteristics for entrainment and travel. The trajectories across the Edwards plateau move across central Oklahoma and Arkansas overnight potentially bringing pollen from the Texas population.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to moderate threat*** Temperatures and humidity are optimal for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau, however, at this time the trees have just begun to pollinate; therefore, overall pollen source levels should still be somewhat low. However, pollen levels in localized areas may reach elevated levels. Any pollen that is entrained into the atmosphere will travel northward thus potentially impacting the Dallas/Fort Worth to Austin areas. The primarily northward winds should reduce the occurrence of high concentrations in San Antonio and other cites south of the Edwards Plateau

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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