The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

 

Date Issued: 22 December 2007

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, December 22 and 23 TX/OK: The weather today will degrade from north to south as a cold front moves through Oklahoma bringing up to an inch or more of snow. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the lower 40s, with clearing skies and lows in the lower 20s overnight. Winds will be strongly from the north, 25-35 mph during the day easing off during the evening and overnight to 10 to 15 mph. Warmer temperatures will be the rule throughout Texas with the highs in the lower 50s over the southwestern Edwards Plateau region, to low 60s in the east, but partly cloudy with a chance of precipitation along the northern edge with highs only reaching the lower 40s. Strong winds will be from the north-northwest with gusts from 25 to 35 mph. Overnight winds will decrease after midnight coming out of the southwest on the western Edwards Plateau and shifting from the northeast along the eastern edge of the Plateau. Skies will be clearing overnight.

On Sunday, sunny conditions will return to Oklahoma with high temperatures reaching into the 40s Winds will decrease as the Saturday system moves towards the east. In Texas, high temperatures will rise by 5-10 degrees with lower 50s to the west and upper 50s to the east. Winds will continue to decrease over the day coming out of the south on the western Edwards Plateau and from the North along the eastern edge of the Plateau. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 20s to mid 30s from Oklahoma southward to central Texas. Across the region increasing clouds will cover the sky with and increasing chance of precipitation on Monday.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the south-southeast from the primary area with Juniperus asheii trees. The trajectories are associated with cold air traveling near ground level. The winds over Oklahoma and the Edwards Plateau shows poor characteristics for entrainment and travel, however the very strong winds may carry any pollen released long distances. The trajectories across the Edwards plateau and southern Oklahoma move southward across the Gulf Coast into the Gulf of Mexico towards the Yucatan Peninsula.

On Sunday winds will be lighter and once again return to a northerly flow during the day. During the late afternoon and into the evening the lower trajectories are turned once again towards the south, but the upper elevations continue to move towards the east following regional upper air flow patterns.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today; Low to Moderate threat tomorrow *** Temperatures and humidity will be sub-optimal for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau and in Oklahoma today and tomorrow. There is increasing indication that the trees are beginning their period of pollination, but with the season just beginning and bad weather conditions levels should be relatively low. Pollen levels in localized areas may see some minor releases. Any pollen that is entrained with the strong winds will travel southward towards the Gulf of Mexico rapidly. On Sunday, conditions will improve, but temperatures will remain relatively cool and any precipitation across the area will increase overall relative humidity, both conditions do not favor pollen release. Any releases will impact the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN (SATURDAY)

JUNCTION (SATURDAY)

SAN ANGELO (SATURDAY)

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (SATURDAY)

AUSTIN (SUNDAY)

JUNCTION (SUNDAY)

SAN ANGELO (SUNDAY)

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (SUNDAY)

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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