The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

MONDAY/TUESDAY

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2007

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, December 24 and 25 TX/OK: The weather today will be improving region wide with sunny skies for today and tomorrow and warming temperatures. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the lower 50s, with clear skies and lows in the lower 30s to upper 20s overnight. Winds will be light and variable from the south today but increasing overnight to 10 to 15 mph. Warming temperatures will be the rule throughout Texas with the highs in the mid to upper 50s over the Edwards Plateau region. Light and variable winds will be from the north today and tonight across the eastern portions of the Edwards Plateau. On the western side of the Plateau winds will be stronger, also from the north. Overnight winds will decrease after midnight but shift more to the northeast on the eastern side of the Plateau and out of the southwest to the west. Skies will be clear throughout the day and overnight.

On Tuesday, cloudy conditions will return to Oklahoma with high temperatures reaching into the low 50s Winds will remain steady and from the south throughout the day as another weather system passes to the north. Central Oklahoma has a 20% chance of precipitation Tuesday night. In Texas, high temperatures will be climbing into the mid 60s during the day with winds northwest to north on the western side of the Edwards Plateau to more south to southeast along the eastern side of the Plateau. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 30s to mid 30s from west to east across the Edwards Plateau. Clouds and a 20% chance of precipitation will occur to the east with partly cloudy skies to the west.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north to central Oklahoma then turn northeast with the light and variable winds expected today. Tomorrow, increased winds will move the trajectories to the northeast and also to the east over the eastern portion of Oklahoma and on towards Arkansas. The trajectories are associated with relatively cold air traveling near ground level early today becoming more buoyant later this afternoon and into tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate threat today and tomorrow *** Temperatures will be increasing and humidity will be falling for good conditions of pollen release on the Edwards Plateau and in southern Oklahoma today. Tomorrow temperatures will be about the same, but increasing clouds will raise humidity levels above conditions optimal for pollen release. There is increasing indication that the trees are beginning their period of pollination, but with the season just beginning. Also low morning temperatures on both days will limit pollen release to the afternoon hours. Good conditions today and worse weather tomorrow results in the mixed forecast. Movement from the Arbuckle Mountain area should move directly north today into Missouri at the lowest levels and into the upper mid-west at upper elevations. Tomorrow, trajectories show a more easterly movement crossing into Arkansas south of the Tulsa region. Good conditions on the Edwards Plateau on Tuesday should result in significant pollen levels, however the air mass trajectories suggest movement southward, away from the Oklahoma region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

MONDAY

TUESDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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