The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

MONDAY AND TUESDAY

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2007

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, December 24 and 25 TX/OK: The weather today will be improving region wide with sunny skies for today and tomorrow and warming temperatures. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the lower 50s, with clear skies and lows in the lower 30s to upper 20s overnight. Winds will be light and variable from the south today but increasing overnight to 10 to 15 mph. Warming temperatures will be the rule throughout Texas with the highs in the mid to upper 50s over the Edwards Plateau region. Light and variable winds will be from the north today and tonight across the eastern portions of the Edwards Plateau. On the western side of the Plateau winds will be stronger, also from the north. Overnight winds will decrease after midnight but shift more to the northeast on the eastern side of the Plateau and out of the southwest to the west. Skies will be clear throughout the day and overnight.

On Tuesday, cloudy conditions will return to Oklahoma with high temperatures reaching into the low 50s Winds will remain steady and from the south throughout the day as another weather system passes to the north. Central Oklahoma has a 20% chance of precipitation Tuesday night. In Texas, high temperatures will be climbing into the mid 60's during the day with winds northwest to north on the western side of the Edwards Plateau to more south to southeast along the eastern side of the Plateau. Overnight low temperatures will be in the lower 30s to mid 30s from west to east across the Edwards Plateau. Clouds and a 20% chance of precipitation will occur to the east with partly cloudy skies to the west.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas swirl over the area with the primary population of Juniperus asheii trees. The trajectories are associated with cooler air traveling near ground level, but it becomes more buoyant later today and into tomorrow. The trajectories from the eastern part of the Plateau move towards the northeast over the next 36 hours, turning to a more east-northeasterly direction tomorrow. Upper elevation winds differentiate themselves tomorrow moving towards the east-northeast whereas the surface winds turn more southward before looping back towards the north. The winds over the Edwards Plateau show relatively good characteristics for entrainment and travel both today and tomorrow across the region.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today and tomorrow *** Temperatures and humidity will be optimal today and tomorrow, with increasing clouds and higher humidity late tomorrow afternoon and evening. There is increasing indication that the trees are in their period of pollination, with the season just beginning, good conditions for pollen release and swirling winds conditions, especially in the vicinity of the Edwards Plateau, pollen levels will be moderate to high. However, low morning temperatures on both days will limit pollen release to the afternoon hours. Any pollen that is entrained with the light and variable winds will eventually travel to the east-northeast tonight, eventually turning more eastward and southward on Tuesday. High levels of pollen should be expected this afternoon and tomorrow, until increasing humidity and clouds to the east may dampen further release, entrainment, and travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN (MONDAY)

JUNCTION (MONDAY)

SAN ANGELO (MONDAY)

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (MONDAY)

AUSTIN (TUESDAY)

JUNCTION (TUESDAY)

SAN ANGELO (TUESDAY)

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (TUESDAY)

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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