The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Moderate to High

San Antonio

Moderate to High

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2007


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 26 TX/OK: The weather today will be impacted by a low pressure system moving through the area. Overall conditions in Oklahoma will be cold with the chance of rain/freezing rain/snow across the region today. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s to the north warming by about 5 degrees towards the border with Texas. There is a 60% chance of precipitation across the area. Winds will be moderate to strong, 10-15 mph from the north. In Texas, temperatures will warm towards the south with predicted highs in the mid 60s in San Antonio. The northern portions of the state will have a chance of precipitation this morning with cloudy skies diminishing towards the south. Winds will be stronger, 15-25 mph, from the northwest during the day. Overnight, temperatures region wide will be near freezing or below with temperatures in the lower 20s to the north and right around the feezing mark in Austin and San Antonio. Winds will be lighter overnight coming from the north in Oklahoma and swinging towards the northeast over the Edwards Plateau. Thursday's weather will improve with temperatures warming 5-10 degrees. Skies will remain partly cloudy to the north but will improve to mostly sunny across central and southern Texas. Winds will increase back to today's levels with the direction shifting to a southeasterly direction. Winds are then expected to increase towards the evening.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories swirl over the Edwards Plateau, Texas starting with a general north to northwestern wind pushing the trajectories to the south, southeasterly direction. Overnight winds shift to the northeast then to the southeast tomorrow, causing the trajectories to loop back towards the west before heading in a generally northerly direction tomorrow. The trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains show the same type of pattern moving south over northern Texas, then looping to the west and eventually over western Oklahoma. Wind characteristics show relatively cold air with the trajectories until tomorrow suggesting little buoyancy and thus poor characteristics for long distance travel, although areas in close proximity may experience high pollen concentrations.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today to the south-southeast and west of the Edwards Plateau
*** Temperatures will be low with significant humidity and the possibilities of showers today, thus poor conditions for pollen release to the north in southern Oklahoma today. Conditions are better over the Edwards Plateau with skies clearing and temperatures in the mid 50s, climbing to upper 50s to mid-60s tomorrow. Throughout the region moderate to strong winds will move any pollen releases to the south-southeast over Texas before moving towards the west and then back north (see Austin trajectories). The trajectories will travel as far as Brownsville over the next 24 hours. To the west, movement to the southeast will be less and a sharper turn towards the north will occur. Throughout the winds appear to be relatively dense moving near their modeled levels and will not become more buoyant (characteristics associated with long distance travel) until tomorrow. Moderate conditions today, with better conditions tomorrow result in a cautious forecast with the potential of significant pollen levels spreading south-southeast, then west and eventually northward around the main Juniperus asheii population. The poor characteristics for pollen travel over long distances will not preclude significant levels in and around actively pollinating trees, thus much of the Edwards Plateau will be affected.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO


EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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