The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2007

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 27 TX/OK: The weather today will be impacted by the position of the jet stream just north of the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. Overall conditions in Oklahoma will be cool with central Oklahoma and northward in the 30s and closer to the Texas border in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Skies will be mostly cloudy with 10 to 15 mph winds from the east to southeast. Tonight snow and rain to the north and rain towards Texas will develop (70% to 30% north to south) as temperatures range from the upper 20s in Oklahoma City to the lower 30s in Ardmore, south of the Arbuckle Mountains. Winds will continue to be from the east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Tomorrow skies will remain partly cloudy with temperatures, ranging from the upper 30s to mid-40s in Oklahoma. Winds will switch from the predominant easterly direction to a northwest wind at 10 to 15 mph.. In Texas, temperatures will warm towards the south with sunny skies and predicted highs in the mid to lower 60s across and around the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be strong, building towards the afternoon and evening with portions of the Plateau experiencing 20 to 30 mph winds from the south to southeast. Overnight, skies will become partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures from the lower to mid 30s into the lower 40s. Winds will continue to be strong with gusts between 25 and 30 mph. Winds start from the southeast, but will shift overnight to a west and northwest direction. Friday's weather will return temperatures to slightly lower levels in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Skies will clear to sunny conditions with winds remaining strong from the northwest to north.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau north-northeast quickly over all but the panhandle of Oklahoma. The turn of strong winds overnight from the south to southeast back towards a north to northwest direction may move loose and entrained pollen back towards communities along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be more influenced by the overall trend of the southeastern winds that then abruptly turn to a northwestern direction bringing the trajectories back to the southeast. Overnight increasing clouds and a heightened chance of precipitation to the north will dampen any significant pollen movement over the area. In addition, winds shift to the northwest causing the trajectories to move back towards the southeast. Wind characteristics show a relatively buoyant atmosphere suggesting good characteristics entrainment of any pollen that is released and possible long distance travel. Areas in close proximity may experience high pollen concentrations.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today. Moderate threat continues to the south and south east overnight as winds shift around to northwesterly *** Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s today but with clouds and humidity building into the evening hours, thus moderate to good conditions for pollen release this morning tapering off to the evening hours. Throughout the region moderate to strong winds will move any pollen releases quickly northward. The trajectories show good conditions with a buoyant, rising atmosphere. However, conditions conducive to pollen entrainment and long-distance travel will begin to degrade towards the late afternoon and into the evening. Moderate to good conditions today, with conditions degrading overnight will be followed by building again tomorrow for a forecast with the potential of significant pollen levels spreading northward from the main Juniperus asheii population. Temperatures will be about the same tomorrow, but sunny skies are expected to return with drier conditions.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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