The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 December 2007

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, December 28 TX/OK: The weather today will be impacted by the position of the jet stream just north of the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. However there will be a break in the parade of weather systems across the southern Great Plains. Conditions in Oklahoma will be improving from yesterday but remain cool with central Oklahoma and northward in the upper 30s reaching the 40s in more southern localities. Skies will start foggy with places of freezing fog this morning, but clearing towards the afternoon with light winds from the northwest. Tonight skies will become mostly clear with temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 20s. Winds will be light and variable shifting from the northwest to the southeast over night. Tomorrow skies will become partly cloudy but warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 40s in central Oklahoma rising to the lower to mid 50s towards Texas. Winds will pick-up to 10 - 15 mph from the south. In Texas, temperatures today will be in the upper 50s across the Edwards Plateau and in the lower to mid 60s along the eastern and southern edge between Waco and San Antonio. Winds will be from 5 to 15 mph from the north to northwest. Overnight the skies will be mostly clear with conditions cooling into the lower 20's across the Plateau and the upper 20's to lower 30's along the eastern and southern edge. Winds will be light switching to the southeast over the Plateau and from the northeast to east along the eastern and southern edge communities. Saturday will be sunny with temperatures warming by 5 to 10 degrees and winds continuing to turn from the northeast to east to southeast throughout the day as the next system starts to move out of the southern Rocky Mountains.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau southeast, then circle around overnight and head northward into Saturday. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by moist, foggy conditions this morning with the trajectories moving on northwestern winds that then turn to a southeastern direction bringing the trajectories back to the northwest all occurring over northern Texas. Mostly clear skies over southern Oklahoma tonight will bring cold temperatures with light and variable winds. Wind characteristics show a relatively stable or sinking atmosphere suggesting poor characteristics for entrainment of any pollen that is released. Cool conditions and high humidity make for poor pollen release conditions within the Arbuckle Mountains population today but conditions should improve slightly tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today; Poor conditions for pollen release *** Temperatures will be low with significant humidity this morning, clearing in the afternoon. Overnight cold temperatures will be accompanied by light winds. Overall poor pollen release conditions are expected in southern Oklahoma today. Conditions are better further south over the Edwards Plateau with clear, sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s, but with cold temperatures overnight well below freezing on the Plateau and near freezing along the eastern and southern edge communities. Throughout the region, light to moderate winds will be from the northwest today shifting overnight to the northeast and then the southeast. In Texas, conditions are much better for pollen release today, however the trajectories show movement south of the Plateau and only into tomorrow will they move northward towards Oklahoma. The trajectory characteristics show the atmosphere to be stable and or sinking, conditions not particularly conducive to pollen entrainment and long-distance travel over long time periods. Moderate conditions will occur today on the Edwards Plateau, with better conditions tomorrow result in a cautious forecast with the potential of moderate pollen levels over the main Juniperus ashei population, spreading southward of the Edwards Plateau.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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