The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, December 20 and 21 TX/OK: A cold front is sliding down from the north and will dominate the regional weather beginning this afternoon. Cold temperatures will spread southward with today’s highs, ranging from the 50s in central Oklahoma to the low 80s near San Antonio. As the cold front starts to push southward temperatures will begin to drop and regional winds will increase from the northwest to upwards of 15 to 25mph. Skies will be partly cloudy throughout the day with mostly cloudy skies to the south. Tonight temperatures throughout the region will be below freezing to the north and in the mid to lower 30’s around the Edwards Plateau in Texas. Winds will be from the north throughout the night. Tomorrow temperatures will be significantly lower than today with areas towards the north below freezing and those to the south reaching the mid 40’s. Winds will remain moderate to strong.

Trajectory weather: Partly to mostly cloudy today, high in the mid 60's, but with temperatures dropping rapidly as the cold front moves into the area. Moderate to strong winds will be from the north overnight and into tomorrow. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be in the mid to lower 20s with high temperatures on Sunday only reaching the mid to upper 30s. Winds on Sunday will be moderate (10-15mph) from the north switching towards the northeast. Air mass trajectories today move to the south from the Arbuckle Mountains. Sunday’s trajectories begin moving due south and then circle back around to the north on Monday.



OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Marginally favorable conditions for pollen release today but temperatures will be dropping quickly in the afternoon. Tomorrow conditions will be unfavorable. The annual beginning of Juniperus ashei pollen release has yet to be confirmed; however the timing is right for the trees to start to produce. Because of the timing and mild temperatures this morning, some release is possible. Informants in Texas suggest that the cones have yet to mature; therefore, pollen release has not yet begun. Residents throughout southern plains should brace themselves for the upcoming pollination season, although large releases have yet to be observed.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

SATURDAY

SUNDAY

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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