The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2008


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, December 20 and 21 TX/OK: A cold front is sliding down from the north and will dominate the regional weather beginning this afternoon. Cold temperatures will spread southward with today’s highs, ranging from the 50s in central Oklahoma to the low 80’s near San Antonio. As the cold front starts to push southward temperatures will begin to drop and regional winds will increase from the northwest to upwards of 15 to 25 mph. Skies will be partly cloudy throughout the day with mostly cloudy skies to the south. Tonight temperatures throughout the region will be below freezing to the north and in the mid to lower 30’saround the Edwards Plateau in Texas. Winds will be from the north throughout the night. Tomorrow temperatures will be significantly lower than today with areas towards the north getting just above freezing and those to the south reaching the mid 40’s. Winds will remain moderate to strong.



Trajectory weather: Partly to mostly cloudy today, high in the mid 70s to low 80s towards the south, but with temperatures dropping rapidly as the cold front moves into the area. Foggy, humid conditions will occur this morning along the edge of the Edwards Plateau. Moderate to strong winds will be from the north overnight and into tomorrow. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be in the mid to lower 30s to the east and low to mid 40s along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. High temperatures on Sunday will only reaching the mid to upper 40s. Winds on Sunday will be moderate (10-15 mph) from the north switching towards the north east. Trajectories today move to the east and southeast and then circle around south Texas. Sunday’s trajectories move to the southwest and then curve around to the west and then to the northeast as the cold air begins to move out of the region on Monday.



OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today but very unfavorable tomorrow. The annual beginning of Juniperus ashei pollen release has yet to be confirmed; however the timing is right for the trees to start to produce. Because of the timing and warm temperatures today, release is possible. Informants in Texas suggest that the cones have yet to fully mature, therefore pollen release has not yet begun. Residents throughout southern plains should brace themselves for the upcoming pollination season, although large releases have yet to be observed. With the cold temperatures tomorrow, release is not likely to occur.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

SATURDAY

AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO

SUNDAY

AUSTIN


JUNCTION


SAN ANGELO



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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