The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 22 December 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, December 22 – TX/OK: A cold front reached down across the southern Great Plains yesterday and the cool temperatures will continue to dominate the region today. Winds will continue to be moderate from the southeast this morning shifting to a more easterly direction. The western portion of the Edwards Plateau will start more northeasterly then shift towards the southeast latter in the day. As warmer, moister air is pulled in from the south today the chance of rain and drizzle will continue to grow during the day across the region. Overnight temperatures will remain in the mid- to low 30’s with east to southeast and southerly winds continuing. In many areas, lingering cold temperatures may result in limited freezing rain. Tomorrow temperatures will warm by upwards of 20 to 30 degrees with most of the southern areas in the mid-60’s and in the mid-50s to the north. Winds will remain moderate from the south. Temperatures overnight on Tuesday will remain moderate to the south, in the mid-50s to low 60’s. To the north low temperatures will return to the 30’s.

Trajectory weather: Partly to mostly cloudy today, high in the mid 30's, today and tonight. There is a chance of drizzle and a potential for freezing rain locally overnight. Winds will remain from the southeast shifting to the south. Significant warming will occur tomorrow with highs in the lower 50s but returning into the 30s Tuesday night. Skies will be opening up with only partly cloudy skies Tuesday night. Trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north as the winds shift to the south this afternoon.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today but more favorable conditions tomorrow. The annual beginning of Juniperus ashei pollen release is starting to be confirmed with recorded values over the weekend occurring to the south on the Edwards Plateau of central Texas. Wet and cold conditions today should retard pollen release today, but warming conditions tomorrow may result in pollen dissemination. Because this is the initial indication of Juniperus ashei pollen release, residents throughout southern plains should brace themselves for the upcoming pollination season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Peter K. Van deWater (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated futuretrack of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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