The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 22 December 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, December 22 – TX/OK: A cold front reached down across the southern Great Plains yesterday and the cool temperatures will continue to dominate the region today. Winds will continue to be moderate from the southeast this morning shifting to a more easterly direction. The western portion of the Edwards Plateau will start more northeasterly then shift towards the southeast latter in the day. As warmer, moister air is pulled in from the south today the chance of rain and drizzle will continue to grow during the day across the region. Overnight temperatures will remain in the mid- to low 30’s with east to southeast and southerly winds continuing. In many areas, lingering cold temperatures may result in limited freezing rain. Tomorrow temperatures will warm by upwards of 20 to 30 degrees with most of the southern areas in the mid-60’s and in the mid-50s to the north. Winds will remain moderate from the south. Temperatures overnight on Tuesday will remain moderate to the south, in the mid-50s to low 60’s. To the north low temperatures will return to the 30’s.

Trajectory weather: Trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the north as southerly winds return to the region this afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy today, high temperatures will be in the mid 30s to low 40s as the lingering effects of this weekend’s cold front remain in the area. As moist air starts to push in from the south, the chance of rain and freezing rain in some areas will occur today. High temperatures are expected in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s throughout the central Texas region. High levels of humidity and cold temperatures should retard and pollen release. Tonight the chance of rain and drizzle increases across the region. Temperatures will remain in the mid-30s. Winds will be from the east during the day shifting to the southeast this afternoon or evening. Tomorrow, morning fog will give way to cloudy skies as temperatures warm significantly into the upper 50s to mid-60s. Winds will shift out of the south and become moderate. However, with the warmer and moister air the chance of precipitation on Tuesday and Tuesday night will continue. Temperatures Tuesday night will remain warm in the mid-50s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. The annual beginning of Juniperus ashei pollen release is starting to be confirmed with recorded values over the weekend occurring to the south on the Edwards Plateau of central Texas. Wet and cold conditions today should retard pollen release, but warming conditions tomorrow may result in pollen dissemination. Because this is the initial indication of Juniperus ashei pollen release, residents throughout southern plains should brace themselves for the upcoming pollination season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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