The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 December 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 23 - TX/OK: Cloudy weather and cool conditions will occur across the Oklahoma region with warming temperatures to the south. The northern region this morning may experience freezing drizzle this morning warming into the low 40s during the day. Winds will be moderate to strong and from the south with gusty conditions this afternoon. Today, southern Oklahoma expects a 35% chance of rain diminishing to 20% tonight. In central Texas, similar conditions will occur around the eastern and southern edges of the Edwards Plateau. However, temperatures will be warmer and thus only drizzle and fog is forecast and the potential of freezing conditions is diminished. Temperatures in the western part of the Plateau will climb into the mid to lower 60s. On the eastern part of the Edwards Plateau, mostly cloudy conditions will move towards partly cloudy conditions with temperatures in the mid-40s to low 50s. Winds will be from the south today at 10-20 mph then shift overnight out of the west. Tomorrow conditions will continue to warm region wide, with partly cloudy conditions to the north. Temperatures will warm into the low 50s around the Arbuckle Mountains. Winds will be moderate and shift to out of the north then swing back around to the east overnight on Wednesday. In Texas, mostly sunny conditions will occur on Wednesday with temperatures climbing into the low 70s around the edge of the Edwards Plateau and into the 60s on the Edwards Plateau. Winds will swirl during the day from the northwest to north to northeast over night.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy conditions this morning will start to clear but will still see a 30% chance of precipitation around the edge of the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau dryer conditions will prevail as mostly cloudy conditions will move towards partly cloudy conditions. Temperatures throughout the region will be in the low 60's with relatively mild conditions overnight. Winds will begin from the east this morning, but will become stronger and gustier this afternoon as they shift towards the south. Tomorrow conditions will continue to warm with conditions on the Plateau similar to today but morning fog around the edge in the communities of Waco to Austin and San Antonio. Winds will remain moderate from the Northeast across the region. Air mass trajectories generally move to the north, northeast, although the trajectories close to the ground circle around to the east and south.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Unfavorable conditions for pollen release today, but favorable tomorrow. Drying conditions will eventually lead to a greater probability of release, tomorrow. On the Edwards Plateau, conditions will improve throughout today with dryer conditions. If any pollen is released, and gets into the atmosphere, it should move rapidly to the north-northeast at upper elevations but swirl around the Edwards Plateau at lower elevations.. Atmospheric conditions at the lower elevations are not particularly good for the entrainment and long-distant movement of pollen. The annual beginning of Juniperus ashei pollen release is starting to be confirmed with recorded values over the weekend occurring to the south on the Edwards Plateau of central Texas. Because this is the initial indication of Juniperus ashei pollen release, residents throughout southern plains should brace themselves for the upcoming pollination season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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