Date Issued: 24 December 2008
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Wed and Thurs, December 24 and 25 -
TX/OK: Across the region conditions will be warming with partly cloudy skies today and increasing chance
of precipitation to the south along the edge of the Edwards Plateau in Texas. Across Oklahoma, winds will be light
and variable with temperatures in the 40s to the low 50s in southern Oklahoma today. Tonight, the lows will be
in the 30s with light and variable winds out of the east. Christmas day will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies
with warm temperatures and winds shifting out of the southeast to the south with increasing intensity towards Thursday
night into Friday. By Thursday night the chance of precipitation will begin to increase. To the south in Texas,
the Edwards Plateau will warm into the 60s and low 70s today. Winds will be light to moderate from the northeast
today shifting to the southeast over night and eventually to the south on Christmas day through Friday. Temperatures
on Christmas will continue to be warm in the 60s and 70s across the region. Thursday and Friday night low temperatures
will remain warm only dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds will increase Thursday evening into Friday.
Starting on Thursday evening the chance of precipitation will begin to rise with a 30-40% chance occurring around
the Edwards Plateau by Friday.
Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy skies today, with warming conditions will occur in southern Oklahoma. Winds will be light to moderate and over the next day shift from a northerly direction to a southerly direction by Thursday. Conditions in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains should be marginal for the release of pollen today and better tomorrow. On Friday an increasing chance of precipitation should keep humidity levels high thus potentially dampening and release. Air mass trajectories indicate that any pollen release today will move due south and then circle towards the west then begin to move northward as the winds shift. On Thursday, trajectories indicate that entrained pollen should move northward across central to northeastern Oklahoma, eventually towards the upper mid-west.
OUTLOOK: *** Low to moderate Threat *** marginal conditions for pollen release today with more favorable conditions tomorrow. Warming conditions and an overall drying from recent wet conditions should lead to somewhat favorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Increase chance of precipitation on Friday may impact potential pollen shed. Variable winds with relatively stable conditions suggest that any pollen released today should remain close to the trees or move south. However for tomorrow winds will begin to pick-up and the atmosphere will be light and buoyant, conditions ripe for pollen entrainment and transport. Coupled with warming conditions the potential for pollen spread tomorrow is much greater. Winds from the south will carry any pollen entrained into the atmosphere northward across central Oklahoma. Because the annual beginning of the Juniperus ashei pollination season is just starting, the total number of pollen cones ready to disseminate their pollen will be proportionately small. However, the next couple of days provide the best conditions yet, for long-distance pollen dispersal. Because this is the initial indication of Juniperus ashei pollen release, residents throughout southern plains should brace themselves for the upcoming pollination season.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Sulfur, OK.
WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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