The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 December 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, December 26 - TX/OK: Across the region conditions will be partly to mostly cloudy this morning with clearing and a partly sunny afternoon in the western portions of the region. Conditions across the region will be warming with temperatures in the 60s to 70s to the north and near 80 along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate to strong from the south throughout the region with the air trajectories all moving into the central and northern Great Plains over the next 24 to 48 hours. Tonight, will become mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain warm with lows in the 50s and 60s and the moderate to strong winds from the south will continue. Saturday will continue with cloudy skies, clearing in the afternoon but with an early morning chance of thunderstorms across the region. High temperatures on Saturday will moderate to the lower 60s and upper 50s as colder air moves into the region. The winds on Saturday will begin from the south but start to shift during the day to a westerly direction. Low temperatures on Saturday night will return back to the 30s and lower.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy skies this morning with the chance of drizzle around the Edwards Plateau, but clearing this afternoon to partly sunny conditions on the western side of the Plateau. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s to the low 80s toward the south. There is an increasing chance of thunderstorms going into the evening hours and tomorrow on the southern and eastern sides of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderately strong from the south (15 -20 mph). Skies tonight will return to partly cloudy conditions with an increasing chance of thunderstorms. Low temperatures across the region will remain relatively mild, in the mid 50s to low 60s. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid-60s to low 70s declining to the mid-30s around the Edwards Plateau tomorrow night. Winds will shift to a westerly direction on Saturday. Conditions for pollen release today look good with drying and warm conditions. Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the north, northeast over central Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, and Missouri. The atmosphere appears to be buoyant and with moderate wind speeds, both conditions conducive to pollen entrainment and travel.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** mostly favorable conditions for pollen release today with less favorable conditions tomorrow. Warming conditions and an overall drying during the afternoon along with very warm conditions should lead to favorable conditions for pollen release today. However humidity along the southern and eastern portion of the Plateau will remain high today, reducing the risk of pollen release. Tomorrow conditions will begin to deteriorate and cooler conditions move in, but there should be an overall drying from current humid conditions. Moderate to strong winds with buoyant atmospheric conditions suggest that any pollen released today has a good chance of becoming entrained and moved long-distances. Winds from the south will carry any pollen entrained into the atmosphere northward across the Dallas/Fort Worth region into and through Oklahoma. Because the annual beginning of the Juniperus ashei pollination season is just starting, the total number of pollen cones ready to disseminate their pollen will be proportionately small, however it should be gaining in potential strength on a daily basis. However, today and tomorrow provide the best conditions yet, for long-distance pollen dispersal. Because this is the initial indication of Juniperus ashei pollen release, residents throughout southern plains should brace themselves for the upcoming pollination season.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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