The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 29 December 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, December 29 - TX/OK: Warm sunny skies are in store for the region today warming to even higher temperatures tomorrow. In Oklahoma the southern area will be in the mid 60's with light and variable winds from the southwest. Conditions tonight will remain clear with lows in the upper 30s and then clear sunny skies tomorrow with high temperatures in the lower 70s. Winds tonight will remain light from 5 to 10 mph from the south. Tomorrow winds will pick-up and shift to the southwest from 10 to 15 mph. Tuesday night mostly clear skies are expected with temperatures in the mid-30s. Winds will shift from the southwest to the north as a week cold front pushes through. In Texas similar conditions will prevail with sunny conditions toady and regional temperatures in the upper 60s. Light winds will be from the south on the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities, air will move off of the Plateau so light winds from the north are expected in San Antonio and northwest winds in Austin. Tonight skies will remain clear with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Winds will increase slightly and become dominantly from the southwest, but still light. Tomorrow will bring a regional warming as high temperatures reach into the lower 70s. Winds will begin to pick up reaching moderate conditions and from the southwest. Tuesday night winds will begin to shift as the week cold front moves through the region. Temperatures will reach the mid 30s once again and skies will remain mostly clear.

Trajectory weather: Warm temperatures will occur region wide along with light to variable winds after a cold morning. The trajectories show that at the ground surface the atmosphere will remain relatively stable thus moving at or near ground level through the trees. All conditions look very good for pollen dispersal from trees and if entrained, pollen will move towards the north-northeast into eastern Oklahoma, Northwestern Arkansas, and Missouri. However wind speeds are low and much of the pollen may be deposited close to the source.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. However, only favorable conditions for entrainment occur today becoming very favorable tomorrow. Warm temperatures and dry conditions should lead to very favorable conditions for pollen release from the trees today throughout the region. For significant entrainment and travel downwind, however, the stability of the air mass over the region and the light and variable winds may prevent much of the pollen from spreading any distance. Therefore, those areas close to the trees may have significant concentrations versus those regions at greater distances. The trajectories show a consistent pattern of movement towards the north to northeast bending eastward downwind. The trajectories from the southern population in Texas will overlap with those from the smaller population in the Arbuckle Mountains. There could be a confounding effect with higher concentrations arriving just after the initial influx from southern Oklahoma.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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