The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 December 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 30 - TX/OK: Warm sunny skies are in store for the region today with a weak cold front moving through tomorrow as cold air sags into the southern regions of the U.S. In Oklahoma the southern area will be in the lower 70s with moderate winds from the southwest today shifting to a northeasterly direction as the cold front moves through. Conditions tonight will remain clear with lows in the lower 30s. Clear sunny skies are on tap for tomorrow with high temperatures cooling to the mid 50s with 40s in central and northern Oklahoma. Winds will start from the northeast at around 10 mph but become light and variable as the day progresses. Tomorrow night the skies will remain mostly clear with low temperatures in the mid-30s and winds light to moderate and from the southeast. In Texas similar conditions will prevail with sunny conditions today and regional temperatures in the upper 70s on the Edwards Plateau and lower 70s in surrounding communities. Moderate winds will start from the south to southwest today, switching to a northeasterly direction tomorrow. The eastern side of the Plateau will see the shift sometime after midnight, whereas the switch on the western side will come earlier. Tonight skies will remain clear with temperatures in the low to mid 30s on the Plateau and lower 40s in the surrounding communities. Tomorrow will bring a regional cooling as high temperatures will only reach into the mid to upper 50s and low 60s at lower and more southern locations. Winds will be light to moderate and from the north, northeast across the regions, switching from the southern quadrant Wednesday night. Wednesday night temperatures will return to the mid 30s and low 40s with partly cloudy skies on the Edwards Plateau and mostly cloudy skies in the surrounding communities.

Trajectory weather: Warm temperatures occur region-wide along with moderate winds and very light and buoyant atmospheric conditions. The trajectories show that the air mass will begin moving towards the northeast but as colder air moves in at ground level from the north trajectory directions will shift towards the southeast and then back towards the southwest. This change will occur preferentially from the lower to upper elevations. All conditions look very good for pollen dispersal from trees and pollen entrainment. Once entrained within the atmosphere the pollen will move towards the northeast towards eastern Oklahoma, but then turn southward impacting communities in from Northwestern Arkansas towards the southeast.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today and favorable conditions for release tomorrow. Very favorable conditions for entrainment today, becoming favorable tomorrow. Warm temperatures and dry conditions should lead to very favorable conditions for pollen release from the trees today throughout the region. Light and buoyant conditions should also lead to significant entrainment and travel downwind, especially if pollen can get into the upper elevation winds. Pollen release yesterday from the Edwards Plateau may also be impacting the central and northeast Oklahoma this morning and early afternoon. Once the winds shift, this threat will be reduced. The trajectories show a pattern consistent with the influx of cold air from the north essentially causing the winds to swirl across the region over the next couple of days.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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