The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 December 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 30 - TX/OK: Warm sunny skies are in store for the region today with a weak cold front moving through tomorrow as cold air sags into the southern regions of the U.S. In Oklahoma the southern area will be in the lower 70s with moderate winds from the southwest today shifting to a northeasterly direction as the cold front moves through. Conditions tonight will remain clear with lows in the lower 30s. Clear sunny skies are on tap for tomorrow with high temperatures cooling to the mid 50s with 40s in central and northern Oklahoma. Winds will start from the northeast at around 10 mph but become light and variable as the day progresses. Tomorrow night the skies will remain mostly clear with low temperatures in the mid-30s and winds light to moderate and from the southeast. In Texas similar conditions will prevail with sunny conditions today and regional temperatures in the upper 70s on the Edwards Plateau and lower 70s in surrounding communities. Moderate winds will start from the south to southwest today, switching to a northeasterly direction tomorrow. The eastern side of the Plateau will see the shift sometime after midnight, whereas the switch on the western side will come earlier. Tonight skies will remain clear with temperatures in the low to mid 30s on the Plateau and lower 40s in the surrounding communities. Tomorrow will bring a regional cooling as high temperatures will only reach into the mid to upper 50s and low 60s at lower and more southern locations. Winds will be light to moderate and from the north, northeast across the regions, switching from the southern quadrant Wednesday night. Wednesday night temperatures will return to the mid 30s and low 40s with partly cloudy skies on the Edwards Plateau and mostly cloudy skies in the surrounding communities.

Trajectory weather: Warm temperatures will occur region-wide along with light to moderate winds. The trajectories show that at all levels the atmosphere will be buoyant resulting in conditions that are very favorable to entrainment and long distance travel. The trajectory paths of the air masses will be influenced by the movement of colder air into the region from the north. The trajectories start this morning moving toward the northeast but stay within the borders of Texas before heading towards the south to southeast. Over the next day the trajectories show movement towards the east thus impacting those communities in eastern Texas and Louisiana. All conditions look very favorable for pollen dispersal as well as entrainment and travel. Impacted communities will not only include those that are close to the Juniperus ashei populations (San Antonio, Austin, Waco, Dallas/ Ft. Worth), but because of very favorable conditions for entrainment those that are at further distances may also see significant amounts. Pollen will move into eastern and southeastern Texas, south at ground level into southern Texas, as well as portions of eastern Louisiana.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat *** very favorable conditions for pollen release today and favorable conditions tomorrow. Very favorable conditions for pollen entrainment and long-distance travel today with only favorable conditions for entrainment tomorrow. Warm temperatures and dry conditions should lead to very favorable conditions for pollen release from the trees today throughout the region. Light and buoyant conditions should also lead to significant entrainment and travel downwind, especially if pollen can get into the upper elevation winds. The trajectories show a pattern consistent with the influx of cold air from the north essentially causing the winds to swirl across the region over the next couple of days. The predominant winds from the north will keep most of the pollen in central to south and southeastern Texas and point to the east.
 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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