The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY

 

Date Issued: 31 December 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Dec 31 and Jan 1 - TX/OK: Across the region conditions will remain seasonal with temperatures in Oklahoma from the 40s into the 50s. Skies will be sunny during the day with moderate northeast winds being fed by a large high pressure over the central Great Plains. Tonight, skies will remain clear as temperatures dip into the lower 30s and upper 20s. Winds will be light and variable switching to a southerly direction late tonight into tomorrow. On Thursday, sunny skies will remain with high temperatures in the upper 50s with moderate southerly winds. Skies will be partly cloudy through the evening hours and into Friday. Low temperatures on Thursday night will be in the mid to lower 30s. In Texas, the Edwards Plateau will be mostly sunny towards the west with partly cloudy conditions along the southern areas. Temperatures today will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate to strong and from the northeast provided by the large high pressure over the central Great Plains. Cloudy conditions will be increasing across the area tonight with temperatures in the low 30s on the Plateau and 40s in the surrounding communities. Winds will remain moderate and from the northeast. Thursday will be partly or mostly cloudy across the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Austin and San Antonio have a 20% chance of showers on Friday. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with winds shifting towards the southeast and then towards the southwest overnight.

Trajectory weather: Sunny skies with cool conditions will occur today in southern Oklahoma. Winds will be moderate from the northeast then turning from the southeast overnight and eventually pick up from the south on Thursday. The trajectories show that the air mass will move towards the southwest then back northward and into the central Great Plains. Atmospheric conditions shows cooler denser air and suggests that the air will be relatively stable and move at or near the ground surface. Conditions in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains may reach the favorable range for release of pollen today and tomorrow. Moderate winds today will decrease and become light and variable tonight, pick up tomorrow and then become light and variable again on Thursday night. The trajectory for tomorrow shows the air mass generally moving north but shifting into different directions at higher elevations.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat *** mixed conditions for pollen release today with more favorable conditions tomorrow, unfavorable conditions for entrainment and transport today and tomorrow. Cool temperatures and relatively dry conditions will present mixed conditions for pollen release today with better conditions tomorrow. Temperatures will only reach the favorable range in the afternoon minimizing any pollen release today. Stable air masses across the region suggest that any pollen released today should remain close to the trees and not be entrained into greater atmospheric heights. Winds from the northeast will carry any pollen initially southwest then turn towards the northeast over Oklahoma. The next couple of days provide moderate conditions for pollen dispersal but less than optimal conditions for entrainment and long-distance travel. Heavy pollen concentrations have been observed during past years for the first couple of weeks in January.
of pollination; so the potential exists for some pollen transport to Oklahoma late tonight. However morning temperatures are low even in Texas so pollen release will be limited to the afternoon hours.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

WEDNESDAY

THURSDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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