The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate / Moderate to High

Austin

High / Moderate to High

San Antonio

Moderate to High / Moderate to High

 

Date Issued: 31 December 2008


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Dec 31 and Jan 1 - TX/OK: Across the region conditions will remain seasonal with temperatures in Oklahoma from the 40s into the 50s. Skies will be sunny during the day with moderate northeast winds being fed by a large high pressure over the central Great Plains. Tonight, skies will remain clear as temperatures dip into the lower 30s and upper 20s. Winds will be light and variable switching to a southerly direction late tonight into tomorrow. On Thursday, sunny skies will remain with high temperatures in the upper 50s with moderate southerly winds. Skies will be partly cloudy through the evening hours and into Friday. Low temperatures on Thursday night will be in the mid to lower 30s. In Texas, the Edwards Plateau will be mostly sunny towards the west with partly cloudy conditions along the southern areas. Temperatures today will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate to strong and from the northeast provided by the large high pressure over the central Great Plains. Cloudy conditions will be increasing across the area tonight with temperatures in the low 30s on the Plateau and 40s in the surrounding communities. Winds will remain moderate and from the northeast. Thursday will be partly or mostly cloudy across the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Austin and San Antonio have a 20% chance of showers on Friday. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with winds shifting towards the southeast and then towards the southwest overnight.



Trajectory weather: Sunny skies today, with cool conditions will occur in southern Oklahoma and areas on the west side of the Edward Plateau. To the east and south, skies will be partly cloudy. Winds will be moderate to strong from the northeast then turning from the southeast to the north, but maintaining a northeast direction in the surrounding communities. Winds will eventually shift to the east and southeast around the Edwards Plateau, with increasing clouds and chance of precipitation on Thursday. A 20% chance of showers occurs around the Edwards Plateau on Thursday with cloudy skies throughout the day and into the evening. The air mass trajectories for today show that the winds will circle towards the southwest then back northward and onto Oklahoma and eventually into Missouri. Atmospheric conditions show cooler denser air today and suggest that the air will be relatively stable and move at or near the ground surface until this afternoon and into the evening. Trajectories for tomorrow basically show movement to the north, northeast.



OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Cool and relatively dry conditions will present favorable conditions for pollen release today but with increasing humidity and a chance of rain in the surrounding communities tomorrow may be less conducive to pollen dispersal. Winds will be moderate from the northeast switching to the south by Thursday. Atmospheric conditions show stable conditions across the region suggesting that entrainment and long-distance travel will be relatively restricted. The overall pattern of wind movement will move any entrained pollen southwest today and then north to northeastward across northern Texas, into central to eastern Oklahoma and on to Missouri. Stable air masses across the region suggest that any pollen released today should remain relatively close to the trees and not be entrained to greater atmospheric heights. On Thursday, the increasing humidity and partly to mostly cloudy skies across the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau may reduce the overall amount of pollen in the atmosphere. Any precipitation that occurs on Thursday will cleanse the air and bring concentrations down. As the new year begins we are entering the main portion of the pollination season. Heavy pollen concentrations have been observed during past years for the first couple of weeks in January. The increasing amount of pollen being recorded suggests that we may expect similar conditions this year.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

WEDNESDAY

AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

THURSDAY

AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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