The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 December 2009

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Friday, December 11 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming today and tomorrow with an increasing change of rain towards the south moving northward across Oklahoma tomorrow. Skies will be sunny to the north across Oklahoma today but with increasing clouds towards the south associated with the increased chance of rain. Tomorrow skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy across the region. Humidity is expected to remain relatively high across the region today and tomorrow. In Oklahoma temperatures are expected in the mid 40’s in Oklahoma City and reaching about 50 to the south. Tonight temperatures will dip into the 20’s to the north and 30’s to the south. Winds will be from the south to southeast and light. Winds tonight will be from the southeast at 10 miles per hour. Winds on Saturday will increase to 10 to 15 miles per hour from the south. In Texas, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will occur both today and tomorrow. Along the southern and southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau and working into the eastern Edwards Plateau region, rain is expected with a 50% chance in the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. The chance diminishes towards the interior of the Plateau. Temperatures are expected in the mid 40’s to the north in Dallas, but rising into the 50’s towards the south. Tonight low temperatures will be in the 30’s and 40’s across the region Tomorrow, Saturday, conditions are expected to warm by 10 degrees into the 60’s but cloudy, humid conditions will remain. Winds will be from the SE today with the exception of the Plateau edge area where winds will be from the NE. Winds overall will be light, 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow winds will remain light but switch from the southeast to a southwesterly direction.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies will occur region wide with a significant chance of rain south today moving northward across Oklahoma tomorrow. Low temperatures will be seasonal with warming into the 40’s and 50’s today and tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies will prevail Saturday across the region as moisture continues to move northward from the Gulf Coast. Across the region, winds will be light from the southeast today and tonight changing to a more southwesterly direction tomorrow. Today, the trajectories move towards the north, across central part of Oklahoma into the upper mid-west. The air appears relatively stable today and tonight with neither lift to higher elevations along the trajectories nor sinking to ground level. Tomorrow the atmosphere to the north will become more buoyant but far away from any pollinating trees.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions tomorrow; poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, poor conditions tomorrow. Cool conditions with light winds and cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will occur across the region. A chance of precipitation is possible, the moisture is expected to move northward tonight and tomorrow. High humidity, cool temperatures and precipitation result in a low threat and poor conditions for release today and tomorrow. The light winds and relatively stable air mass over the area results in poor conditions for entrainment and travel as well. This is this season’s first forecast and unlike the last few years we are starting earlier. Field studies just before Thanksgiving showed that the trees had begun pollinating in the Arbuckle Mountains of southern Oklahoma. Subsequent cold weather has probably slowed their release, but we expect an early season region wide

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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