The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
Low |
San Antonio |
Low |
Date Issued: 11
December 2009
Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional weather: Friday, December 11
– TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming today
and tomorrow with an increasing change of rain towards the south moving northward across Oklahoma tomorrow. Skies
will be sunny to the north across Oklahoma today but with increasing clouds towards the south associated with the
increased chance of rain. Tomorrow skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy across the region. Humidity is expected
to remain relatively high across the region today and tomorrow. In Oklahoma temperatures are expected in the mid
40’s in Oklahoma City and reaching about 50 to the south. Tonight temperatures will dip into the 20’s to the north
and 30’s to the south. Winds will be from the south to southeast and light. Winds tonight will be from the southeast
at 10 miles per hour. Winds on Saturday will increase to 10 to 15 miles per hour from the south. In Texas, partly
cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will occur both today and tomorrow. Along the southern and southeastern edge of
the Edwards Plateau and working into the eastern Edwards Plateau region, rain is expected with a 50% chance in
the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. The chance diminishes towards the interior of the Plateau. Temperatures
are expected in the mid 40’s to the north in Dallas, but rising into the 50’s towards the south. Tonight low temperatures
will be in the 30’s and 40’s across the region Tomorrow, Saturday, conditions are expected to warm by 10 degrees
into the 60’s but cloudy, humid conditions will remain. Winds will be from the SE today with the exception of
the Plateau edge area where winds will be from the NE. Winds overall will be light, 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow
winds will remain light but switch from the southeast to a southwesterly direction.
Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies will occur region wide
with a significant chance of rain south today moving northward the north tomorrow. Low temperatures will be seasonal
with 40’s and 50’s to the north, warming from the 50’s today into the 60’s tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies will
prevail Saturday across the region as moisture continues to move northward from the Gulf Coast. Across the region,
winds will be light from the east and southeast today and tonight changing to a more southwesterly direction tomorrow.
Today, the trajectories move towards the north, across central Oklahoma into the upper mid-west. The air appears
relatively stable today and tonight with neither lift to higher elevations along the trajectories nor sinking to
ground level. Tomorrow the atmosphere to the north will become more buoyant but far away from any pollinating
trees.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low
threat tomorrow *** poor
conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow; poor conditions for entrainment and transport. Cool conditions
with light winds and cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will occur across the region. A chance of precipitation is
possible along the southeastern and southern Edwards Plateau edge communities. The moisture is expected to move
northward tonight and tomorrow. High humidity, cool temperatures and precipitation result in a low threat and
poor conditions for release today and tomorrow. The light winds and relatively stable air mass over the area
results in poor conditions for entrainment and travel as well. This is this season’s first forecast and unlike
the last few years we are starting early. Field studies just before Thanksgiving unexpectedly showed that the
trees had begun pollinating in the Arbuckle Mountains of southern. Subsequent cold weather has probably slowed
their release, but we expect an early season region wide
Oklahoma.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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