The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 December 2009

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Saturday, December 12 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming today with the chance of showers to the north and east. Drizzle and foggy conditions are expected this morning in many places across the region. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy through the day and into the evening. Winds will remain light primarily from the south, although the edge of the Edwards Plateau will see winds from the northeast. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s in the north and approaching the lower 60s to the south. Overnight skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy except for northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma where some clearing will occur. Nighttime temperatures will dip to the lower 40s in the south and upper 30s to the north. Winds will pick up a bit but remain primarily from the south. In many locations they will move more towards a south southwest direction. Tomorrow, across the region skies will clear to sunny and mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s with the southern portions surrounding the Edwards Plateau expected to be in the lower 70s. Winds will remain from the south with light to moderate strength. Sunday night will see the building of clouds again leaving partly cloudy skies. Nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds will remain light to moderate from a southerly direction.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies will occur region-wide with a significant 30% chance of rain around the Arbuckle Mountains this morning. Clouds will start to clear through the day leaving clear skies tonight and winds from the south throughout the daylight and evening hours. Tomorrow the morning will be sunny and warm; however, clouds will build during the day for partly cloudy skies tomorrow night. Low temperatures will be seasonal with warming into the upper 40’s and lower 50’s today, then reaching into the lower 60s tomorrow. Today, the trajectories move towards the north to north northeast across eastern portion of Oklahoma towards the Great Lake region. The air appears relatively stable to sinking conditions at the ground today, tonight and tomorrow. However, higher in the atmosphere more buoyant conditions will exist across the region. Within the tree populations the atmosphere will not lift to higher elevations along the trajectories but will be more prone to sinking to ground level.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today*** Poor conditions for pollen release today and moderate conditions tomorrow. Warming conditions with light winds and mostly cloudy skies will occur across the region today. Tomorrow will see sunny skies with warming conditions and an overall drying. A chance of precipitation is possible early this morning, but conditions will be improving towards the afternoon. With the possible moisture and cool temperatures, high humidity should restrict pollen release today in those areas where the trees are ready to shed their pollen. With warm sunny weather tomorrow a greater risk, and thus moderate conditions, are expected. Therefore the forecast calls for a low threat and poor conditions for release today but increasing tomorrow. The light winds and stable to sinking air masses over the region results in poor conditions for entrainment and travel as well.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page