The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 12 December 2009

Mountain Cedar location(s):
Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather:
Saturday, December 12 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming today with the chance of showers to the north and east. Drizzle and foggy conditions are expected this morning in many places across the region. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy through the day and into the evening. Winds will remain light primarily from the south, although the edge of the Edwards Plateau will see winds from the northeast. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s in the north and approaching the lower 60s to the south. Overnight skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy except for northern Texas and Southern Oklahoma where some clearing will occur. Nighttime temperatures will dip to the lower 40s in the south and upper 30s to the north. Winds will pick up a bit but remain primarily from the south. In many locations they will move more towards a south southwest direction. Tomorrow, across the region skies will clear to sunny and mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s with the southern portions surrounding the Edwards Plateau expected to be in the lower 70s. Winds will remain from the south with light to moderate strength. Sunday night will see the building of clouds again leaving partly cloudy skies. Nighttime temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds will remain light to moderate from a southerly direction.

Trajectory weather:
Cloudy skies will occur region-wide with a chance of showers, drizzle and fog this morning, but the precipitation will move out of the region early. Temperatures will reach above 50 today with some areas on the western Edwards Plateau getting into the 60s. Winds will be light mostly from the south but with regional topographic variation. For example along the southeastern edge of the Plateau the cities of Austin and San Antonio will see winds from the northeast.. Overnight partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with moderate nighttime temperatures in the mid to low forties in most places. Winds will remain from a southerly direction. On Sunday, clear skies and warm temperatures will occur across central Texas with temperatures expected in the 70s. Winds will increase to moderate conditions from the south. However overnight partly cloudy skies will return but mild low temperatures, in the upper 40s and 50s will be the norm. Today, the wind trajectories move towards the north to north northeast, across the eastern half of Oklahoma towards the Great Lakes region. The air appears to be heavy and moves along the ground, conditions that are not suitable for long distance travel.

OUTLOOK: ***
Low Threat today, Moderate threat tomorrow ***
poor conditions for pollen release today; poor conditions for entrainment and transport today. Warming conditions with light winds and cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will occur across the region early today. A chance of precipitation is possible in the northern Texas and southern Oklahoma region. There should be an overall drying of the region overnight and into Sunday as skies clear.. High humidity but with warming temperatures result in a low threat and poor conditions for release today, but trees that are ready to pollinate may shed significant amount tomorrow with the clear skies, warm temperatures and light to moderate winds. However, the relatively stable air mass and sinking atmospheric conditions over the area results in poor conditions for entrainment and travel.

Trajectory Start (s)
(shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN

JUNCTION



SONORA


EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page