The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low to Moderate |
Tulsa |
Low to Moderate |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 13
December 2009
Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional weather: Sunday, December 13 –
TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continuing warming
today with morning fog clearing by mid-day. Skies will be partly cloudy through the day and into the evening.
Winds will remain light to moderate primarily from the south. Temperatures will range from the upper 50s in northern
Oklahoma to the lower 70s across the Edwards Plateau. Overnight skies will remain partly cloudy andnighttime temperatures
will dip to the upper 40s in the north and upper 50s to the north. On Monday temperatures will remain warm although
cooler than tomorrow with a chance of rain along the eastern side of the Plateau. Winds will begin shifting to
the west and northwest ahead of a cold front that will move into the region on Monday night and Tuesday.
Trajectory weather: Trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains
move to the north and northeast today on light to moderate wings. Partly cloudy to clear skies will occur region-wide
with dense fog in the morning. Conditions at the source area will be humid in the morning due to the fog delaying
pollen release to the afternoon hours. The trajectories stay close to the ground which may limit long-distant pollen
dispersal; however, higher in the atmosphere more buoyant conditions exist.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today*** Mostly favorable
conditions for pollen release today with less favorable conditions for downwind transport. Warming conditions with
light to moderate winds and clear to partly cloudy skies will occur across the region today. With the morning
clouds and fog, the high humidity should restrict pollen release to the afternoon hours in those areas where the
trees are ready to shed their pollen; however, the air masses are moving close to the ground over the region results
in poor conditions for entrainment and long distance travel.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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