The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 December 2009

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Sunday, December 13 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continuing warming today with morning fog clearing by mid-day. Skies will be partly cloudy through the day and into the evening. Winds will remain light to moderate primarily from the south. Temperatures will range from the upper 50s in northern Oklahoma to the lower 70s across the Edwards Plateau. Overnight skies will remain partly cloudy andnighttime temperatures will dip to the upper 40s in the north and upper 50s to the north. On Monday temperatures will remain warm although cooler than tomorrow with a chance of rain along the eastern side of the Plateau. Winds will begin shifting to the west and northwest ahead of a cold front that will move into the region on Monday night and Tuesday.

Trajectory weather: Trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the north and northeast today on light to moderate wings. Partly cloudy to clear skies and warm temperatures will occur across the plateau following wide-spread fog in the morning. Conditions at the source area will be humid in the morning due to the fog delaying pollen release to the afternoon hours. The trajectories stay close to the ground which may limit long-distant pollen dispersal; however, higher in the atmosphere more buoyant conditions exist.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today*** Mostly favorable conditions for pollen release today with less favorable conditions for downwind transport. Warm conditions with light to moderate winds and clear to partly cloudy skies will occur across the region today. With the morning clouds and fog, the high humidity should restrict pollen release to the afternoon hours in those areas where the trees are ready to shed their pollen; however, the air masses are moving close to the ground over the region results in poor conditions for entrainment and long distance travel.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page