The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued:14 December 2009

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Monday, December 14 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will transition from warm to cold as a cold front moves through the area. Winds will switch from a southerly direction early to coming from the north. Temperatures today will reach into the 50’s in Oklahoma, into the 60’s in northern Texas and along the edge of the Edward Plateau and into the low 70’s across the Plateau itself. High humidity with fog in northern Texas and southern Oklahoma will occur this morning. Rain is expected along the eastern and southern Edwards Plateau. Tonight temperatures will be in the upper teens to low 20s in Oklahoma and range from the 30s in north Texas to the low 40s toward the south. The chance of rain in the edge communities will build to ~50%. Winds will build across the region from the north to moderate levels of 5 to 15 miles per hour. Tuesday will be much cooler with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s in Oklahoma and just reaching into the upper 40’s and low to mid 50s across the Edwards Plateau region. The chance of rain will persist in the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. Winds will remain from the north at moderate levels of 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south across Texas as a cold front moves into the area. Partly cloudy skies will occur region wide with fog this morning, then clearing and reaching into the mid 50s in the Arbuckle Mountain area. Winds will start from the southwest this morning but quickly switch from the north as colder and dryer air moves into the area.Tonight temperatures will cool into the upper 20s with winds from the north at 10 to 15 miles per hour. The air appears relatively heavy at the lowest levels, but at upper elevations there will be some buoyancy. With warm conditions today pollen may move southward from the Arbuckle population.

OUTLOOK: *** ModerateThreat today *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today but only fair conditions for entrainment and transport. Warm conditions with increasing wind speeds will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. A chance of foggy conditions this morning will result in high humidity which may restrain some of the pollen release. With the recent moisture but warm temperatures and increased wind speeds, the potential of pollen release is heightened today in those areas where the trees are ready to shed their pollen. With cold air moving across the area late this afternoon and tonight the conditions tonight and tomorrow for pollen release are reduced. Therefore the forecast calls for a a moderate threat and moderate conditions for release today but decreasing tomorrow. Increased winds and stable to sinking air masses at the surface results in poor conditions for entrainment and travel as well.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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