The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 December 2009

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Tuesday, December 15 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be colder than yesterday. Temperatures will only reach into the 30s in central Oklahoma and to about 40 degrees along the Texas border. Winds will be from a northerly direction throughout today and tomorrow. Temperatures in Texas today will be into the 40s. The winds will remain from the north at moderate levels across the southern Plains region. High humidity with a chance of precipitation will occur this morning around the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. This morning there is a 20% and 40% chance of precipitation in Austin and San Antonio. The chance of rain will diminish during the morning hours. Tonight temperatures will be in the 20s in Oklahoma and 30s across Texas with colder conditions towards the drier western areas. A chance of rain showers will occur overnight along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain constant at moderate levels across the region tonight. Wednesday will warm slightly into the low to mid 50s with mostly sunny skies across the Plateau and partly sunny skies in the edge communities. Winds will remain from a northerly direction at 5 to 15 miles per hour.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountsain move southward across north Texas onto the Edwards Plateau. The air appears relatively heavy traveling along the ground and is usually poor conditions for entrainment and travel over long distances. Cold conditions today should reduce the amount of pollen disperal southward from the Arbuckle population. Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur at the source area today, with temperatures in the upper 30s and the lower 40s. Winds will be light to moderate from the north. Tonight skies will remain cloudy with light winds and temperatures in the mid to lower 20s.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions for entrainment and transport today. Cool conditions with increasing wind speeds. Tomorrow will see a slight rise in temperatures of about 10 degrees. With cold air moving across the area today and tonight, along with partly cloudy to cloudy skies, the conditions for pollen release are reduced.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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