The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued:15 December 2009

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Tuesday, December 15 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be colder than yesterday. Temperatures will only reach into the 30s in central Oklahoma and to about 40 degrees along the Texas border. Winds will be from a northerly direction throughout today and tomorrow. Temperatures in Texas today will be into the 40s. The winds will remain from the north at moderate levels across the southern Plains region. High humidity with a chance of precipitation will occur this morning around the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. This morning there is a 20% and 40% chance of precipitation in Austin and San Antonio. The chance of rain will diminish during the morning hours. Tonight temperatures will be in the 20s in Oklahoma and 30s across Texas with colder conditions towards the drier western areas. A chance of rain showers will occur overnight along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain constant at moderate levels across the region tonight. Wednesday will warm slightly into the low to mid 50s with mostly sunny skies across the Plateau and partly sunny skies in the edge communities. Winds will remain from a northerly direction at 5 to 15 miles per hour.

Trajectory weather: Today and tomorrow, the trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the south, southwestward across central and southwestern Texas onto Mexico. The air is heavy and will move across the ground, conditions that do not entrain nor move significant amounts of pollen over long distances. Clear to cloudy skies will occur across the mountain cedar source region with the chance of rain this morning around the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will only reach into the 40s today with a steady moderate wind of 10 to 15 miles per hour from the north. Conditions will improve tomorrow with clearing skies and warmer conditions

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today *** poor conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions for entrainment and transport. Cool conditions with high humidity in the east will occur early today with moderate winds from the north. The chance of heightened levels tomorrow is more likely. Local dispersal should occur leading to spotty concentrations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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