The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 December 2009

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Wednesday, December 16 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming today with temperatures expected into the 50s. Temperatures will be in the mid to lower 50s in central Oklahoma and in the Arbuckle Mountain area. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light and variable building to about 10 miles per hour from the south to southeast. Temperatures in Texas today will also be warming into the mid 50s across central Texas. Winds will be from the north along the western portions of central Texas and from the northeast in the western areas. There is a significant chance of showers in both Austin and San Antonio with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 30s north and mid 30s to lower 40s across Texas. Skies will remain partly cloudy except for the edge communities where mostly cloudy skies will remain and the chance of shower increases to 50-60%. Winds will be from the north to northeast and light. On Thursday, skies will begin to clear during the day with temperatures increasing 10 degrees into the 60s. To the east winds will remain from the northeast whereas western locations will see winds shift to a more southerly direction. Temperatures Thursday night will drop into the 30s region wide.

Trajectory weather: Today, the trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northward across central Oklahoma and Oklahoma City then onward to Kansas and western most Missouri. The air appears relatively stable traveling at about the same elevation. These conditions can be marginal for entrainment, especially with light winds across the region. Warm conditions at the source area today should result in more pollen release. However, the light winds will reduce the amount of pollen that travels long distances from the Arbuckle population. Tonight skies will remain partly cloudy with light winds and temperatures in the mid to lower 30s. Tomorrow will see warming with temperatures reaching into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Winds will continue from a southerly direction and be light, especially tonight and tomorrow night.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today; High threat tomorrow *** Moderate conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Moderate conditions tomorrow. Warm conditions but with clear skies and light wind speeds will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. Tomorrow will see partly cloudy skies but with temperatures rising by 5 to 10 degrees. With warming conditions today and tomorrow, the conditions for pollen release will be good. Therefore the forecast calls for a moderate threat today and a high threat tomorrow. However, light winds with stable to sinking air masses at the surface results in moderate conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. It is expected that areas close to the pollinating trees may experience significant levels, but that long-distance travel will be reduced Winds will remain from the south moving any entrained pollen towards central Oklahoma and areas northward.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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