The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 December 2009

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, December 16 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming today with temperatures expected into the 50s. Temperatures will be in the mid to lower 50s in central Oklahoma and in the Arbuckle Mountain area. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light and variable building to about 10 miles per hour from the south to southeast. Temperatures in Texas today will also be warming into the mid 50s across central Texas. Winds will be from the north along the western portions of central Texas and from the northeast in the western areas. There is a significant chance of showers in both Austin and San Antonio with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 30s north and mid 30s to lower 40s across Texas. Skies will remain partly cloudy except for the edge communities where mostly cloudy skies will remain and the chance of shower increases to 50-60%. Winds will be from the north to northeast and light. On Thursday, skies will begin to clear during the day with temperatures increasing 10 degrees into the 60s. To the east winds will remain from the northeast whereas western locations will see winds shift to a more southerly direction. Temperatures Thursday night will drop into the 30s region wide.

Trajectory weather: The trajectories from the Edwards Plateau are variable moving southward from communities along the southeast side but in other areas of the Plateau the winds will turn the trajectories over west Texas then eventually head north to northeastward eventually crossing over central Oklahoma tomorrow. The air is mostly stable to heavy and will decrease in elevation over time moving across the ground, conditions that do not entrain nor move significant amounts of pollen over long distances. Today, conditions will be moderate as temperatures warm and cloudy skies predominate. Conditions will improve tomorrow with clearing skies and warmer conditions. Significant threats will occur across the region with trees tomorrow, with good conditions for release but marginal for travel outside the immediate area. Mostly to partly cloudy skies will occur across Texas with the chance of rain this morning, especially around the edge of the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures warm into the 50s today with a steady light wind of 5 to 10 miles per hour from the north and northeast. A significant chance of showers builds during the day in the Edwards Plateau edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight across the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be in the mid 30s to the low 40s. Winds will remain from the north and northeast at light levels of 5 miles per hour.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today; High threat tomorrow *** good conditions for pollen release today and Excellent conditions tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Moderate conditions tomorrow.Warm conditions with high humidity in the edge communities early today will occur with moderate winds from the northeast. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s regionwide. Temperatures warm into the 60s tomorrow and skies eventually clear across the region leading to a high threat tomorrow. A chance of precipitation is possible this morning, tonight and tomorrow morning along the southeastern Edwards Plateau region. Clearing skies with warm temperatures tomorrow will result in a high threat but the air will remain heavy, entrainment and long distance transport are not expected occur. Reports indicate that the trees are ready to pollinate. Conditions will build over the next two days, but conditions for pollen to spread form the local areas where the trees grow will be marginal. The chance of heightened levels tomorrow is more likely. Local dispersal should occur leading to spotty high concentrations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page